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Laying Horses For Profit

Posted In General Betting Tips/Guides, By Mike

If you are a regular visitor of this site you will probably know I lay horses all the time. In fact it is probably my most profitable betting venture for the past few years now. And I will admit this to you right now, I don’t like horse racing that much! I only bet on it because at the moment it is one of the easiest ways to make money for me.

Make sure you read that ‘for me’ I included at the end of that last sentence. Just because I am doing well laying horses does not guarantee you will succeed as well, it could just be I have a ‘gift’ at finding horses that just plain wont win. The way I do it and this is no big secret is I look for reasons a certain horse wont win the race, note this down and then look for other horses that can win in its place.

No big secret there; just find reasons the horse will not win and then find another horse that can win in it’s place. Then I lay off the horse that I dont think will win and take my profit! (For a more in depth look at how I determine what horses wont win check out the Losing Qualities guide.)

So that’s my big betting strategy! Sounds easy doesn’t it? Well before you go running off to betfair laying off horses left, right and center there are a few things you should keep in mind.

Don’t lay off huge priced horses – This is the fastest way to huge losses. Long priced horses do win and they will cripple you when they do. Especially because on betting exchanges long priced horses odds are even higher than they should be because of the inflated odds exchanges have.

Keep it short – Price and Field I mean. Under 4.5 odds is what I usually go for and is where I usually get the most profit.

Keep an eye on competitors – Remember you need a horses that can beat your lay as well. So it is no use if you lay off a 3/1 shot when the next horse is 12/1 to win. Check the size of the field and the odds of nearest competitors and keep this in mind.

So this post was only supposed to give you the basic idea of why I lay horses and to answer some of the questions I’ve received on the topic, I’ll leave it to you to do the proper research on your own, just remember with every type of betting the more you put in the more you get out. So do the work put in the effort and you will see the returns.

Also I cannot take all of the credit for laying horses being my biggest earner at the moment. Laying Horses Tipsters are probably my biggest monthly expense at the moment, an expense I consider to be totally worth it. The most profitable tipster I use is Martin’s Better Betting, which in the past 3 years has only had 3 losing months and is easily the cheapest of them all.

Spread Betting – Buying Or Selling, Which Is Best?

Posted In General Betting Tips/Guides, Updates, By Mike

Spread Betting as preceded by its reputation is one of the biggest thrills available for a sports bettor. However those of us who take our gambling seriously and are not looking for thrills but instead we are looking for long term consistent profits often look at Spread Betting through weary eyes due to the implied risks that comes with it.

We would be wrong to completely overlook the value that can be found from spread betting on sports though as spread companies are just as fallable as standard bookmakers if not more so. When spread companies set their spreads they are not accurately reflecting what the actual spread is instead they make them in order to split the public down the middle thereby guaranteeing a profit for themselves.

Explanation: Say the spread for Total Points for England in a 20/20 match is 150-155. The betting company has made the spread at this level so that half of the money bet on this market is on the BUY and half of it is on the SELL. This means that the spread company will make a guaranteed profit considering they have successfully split the public.

Still not convinced? Well say to continue the example that the total wagered on this market was £1000 per point (that’s how spread betting works on a point basis) that means that £500 would have been bought at 155 and £500 would have been sold at 150. Now regardless of the actual result the spread company will win 5pts profit or £2500:

England Score 140 – SELLERS will make a combined profit of £5000 (150-140x£500). BUYERS will have made a combined loss of £7500 (155-140x£500) – Spread Company Profit = £2500

England Score 160 – BUYERS will make a combined profit of £2500 (160-155x£500). SELLERS will have made a combined loss of £5000 (160-150x£500) – Spread Company Profit = £2500

England Score 152- BUYERS will make a combined loss of £1500 (155-152x£500). SELLERS will have made a combined loss of £1000 (152-150x£500) – Spread Company Profit = £2500

Now given this knowledge on splitting the public the Professionals in the field, like my friend Tony Jenkins, will tell you that you should be SELLING more than BUYING because the psychology of the average man is to BUY the spread because of the ‘infinite’ profits available driving the spread higher as a result (If more people are BUYING than SELLING the spread will be higher so it splits the public).

I also agree with this thinking but I also notice that on some markets the spread is lower than expected, meaning a large number of people are selling and it is these opportunities I like to exploit. Either way you do it you should always look for inconsistencies between what the spread should be and what the spread is and then use this to make your profit.

For those of you who are reading this thinking “What the hell are you talking about, what in god’s name is Spread Betting?” then you should check out the guide written by my pal Tony Jenkins called Spread Professional. It’s only a fiver and is designed to give the basics plus some good tips to profitting in the world of spread betting.

Betting Underground Review – ‘Legally Rob The Bookies Blind’

Posted In Baseball Betting Guides, Basketball Betting Guides, Betfair Trading Guides, Failed Systems, Football (soccer) Betting Guides, General Betting Tips/Guides, Horse Racing Betting Guides, NFL Betting Guides, Tennis Betting Guides, Updates, By Mike

So the latest ‘must have’ system being released is Betting Underground. There is a huge amount of hype surrounding this system and it’s launch so I’m definitely interested in taking a look at what it offers. The owner’s of the guide themselves proclaim:

Betting Underground is a complete step-by-step betting guide that starts from square one and includes strategies and systems not only for horse racing, but also virtually for all other sports – Baseball, Basketball, US/UK Soccer, US Football, Tennis, Cricket, etc.. Betting Underground is suitable for anyone who wants to make quick money on Betfair or on other bookies whether they are novice or seasoned punters.

I have just bought the system in question myself this morning and here are my thoughts on it:

For starters the number of exit pop-ups on that site was totally annoying and gave me the initial impressions of stay away scam, but I realise this is a viable marketing technique and I am here to do a review so I am continued on and bought anyway.

When I got to the thank you page I was pretty impressed to find that I had not only the main guide but then individual guides for each sport and 4 bonus guides to choose from. However what I later learned was that all of the individual sports guide were take directly from the main guide and only made into a seperate guide for ease of access I would expect.

The systems themselves are extremely basic and a lot of the time just well known and proven to not work systems (Martingale anyone?). I think the line that summed up why I will not be recommending this system to anyone is this:

Thus you bet the winnings from the previous game on the next game as well as in the Let it ride strategy.
If you are going to be successful 15 times in a row, you have the winnings paid out and start over.

Ah yes the let it ride strategy, a well known and profitable strategy indeed (sarcasm). Seriously though I can never recommend a guide that recommends the use of the ‘let it ride’ strategy, more over for 15 times before taking the winnings.

The system that I have hinted at above is basically a complex way of laying off 0-1 in football (UK) matches. Which is quite funny as the system makes you place three bets on three different outcomes with the only outcome missing being the 0-1 away win. The example they have given results in a $9 win from $100 if it is not 0-1, where they then tell you to let the winnings ride for 15 wins.

I would like to say that foolish systems like this were uncommon in this series of systems guide but I cannot there is a system that says if the away team have a player sent off by the 75 minute mark back that there will be another goal. Where are the past results to show that this isn’t anything more than a guess? Surely the odds will change after a red card to reflect that there might be another goal so we will not be able to get value in the long run.

Let’s move on from football, let’s check out what it says about baseball. According to this guide there are only two ways of betting on baseball, The Money Line and the Over/Under. This is news to me, all of these years I have been betting on the Run Line (+/- 1.5 runs remember that one?)

Again with the baseball system the rules are merely guesses that probably influence a game and I can guarantee are already reflected in the odds. Take for example this gem:

If you hit upon powerful offences that have been scoring consistently against a strong ERA pitcher, it is best to bet on the offences team. Betting on the team totals is advisable as the offences will score high runs for their team.

So if a team has been scoring lots of runs we should bet on them to score lots of runs? What a ridiculous statement, this statement would be the greatest betting strategy ever if we assume bookies are idiots and do not take past form into account when setting their lines and making their odds. Obviously a team that has been hitting good pitchers for multiple runs are going to have shorter odds on any overs bet than a normal side. Thus negating any gap in the market and resulting in losses in the long run. Also I have still failed to see any proof that any of these systems work.

Right well I think I may have made my point about this system but as I don’t get to do this an awful lot let’s take a look at the cricket system. To be honest I was quite impressed that there was a cricket system as it is not the most popular sport going but people still do like to bet on it.

Ah that is unlucky, the two pages that they have on cricket are not infact systems they just tell you what the different types of bets are.

So I think you know where I am going with this but I am going to have to put this in my failed category. This system in its entirety does not expose any gaps in the market to make long run profits which is what a system is supposed to do. Instead it goes into great detail on the types of bets you can make and then proposes a system citing the only proof as one example, if that, where it was profitable for them.

I would possibly have said it was a good read for the professional gambler as they could get a few decent ideas from reading over these people’s theories but I can’t possibly endorse paying £27 for a system that is going to tell you to let it ride.

Also a small thing that annoyed me, the entire site is advertised in £’s leading you to believe that this guide is aimed at UK persons but then all through the book it uses American betting terms (parlays, soccer etc.). As a dual citizen of both countries I had no problem understanding but a normal UK person would have some troubles trying to decipher what all of these terms meant when for all intents and purposes it looks targetted to him.

Click here to go to the Betting Underground Site

Tagged with: betting underground

4 Great Tips For Horse Racing Profits

Posted In General Betting Tips/Guides, By Mike

Almost everyone enjoys a flutter on the horses every now and then. Even my church going grand mother will take a bet on the Gold Cup and the Grand National at Aintree. It is a fact of life. Some people enjoy a bet down their local bookmakers everyday while others will stay online and use betfairs in play trading to do their betting. Which ever way you do bet on horse racing you will find this article of use. In this article I am going to be identifying four great tips that you can use to increase the number of winners you pick and therefore the profits you see as a result!

1) If you see a horse in a handicap race carring more than one stone then you should think about betting on it. You will find that you will get some good odds on them because most backers will steer clear of them due to the large amount of extra weight they are carrying. However what you should think about is the fact that they would not have that much weight if they were not a good runner.

2) Back jockeys when they are in form. You will often find a jockey will win 3 or 4 times on the day. Especially if he is a big name like A P McCoy. When you see a big jockey like him winning a race in a day’s meeting then you should seriously consider backing him in the races that are coming later in the day. If you remember back when Frankie Dettori won a total of 7 races at the Royal Ascot. Imagine if you had backed him once he won the first horse, that would have been 6 races and 6 bets that you would have won, not bad.

3) The majority of races are won by horses that go off at 5/1 or less so remember this if you are going to be doing any multiples. 6/1 and 7/1 horses and higher will not be good selections for multiple bets.

4) Do not be put off by the price in the morning papers they are sometimes way off what the horse will go off on. I have actually seen a horses once that was evens in the paper that went off and won at 12/1. So keep this in mind when placing your bets.

The best way you can increase profits from horse racing is to use a proven tipster. The one I use is currently £500 in profit for the month and is only getting better! To find out what tipster I am talking about and to read a full review of their service then click here

Spread Betting on Football – The Psychological Factors!

Posted In General Betting Tips/Guides, By Mike

Football is without a doubt the most popular sport around to have a spread bet on. The reason behind this is mainly the popularity of football and also the added excitement that is brought to a game when you have a spread bet on it.

Spread betting effectively rewards you for being right and the more right you are the more you will see rewarded to you in terms of profit. Take for example you think the game between Manchester United and Queens Park Rangers (Hypothetical example) will be high scoring. In this circumstance you will buy the total number of goals spread say at 2.5 for say ten pound. Now say the final whistle goes and the final score is 4-2 to Manchester United. Here you will have won £35 as each goal over 2.5 is worth £10 to you. Now say that the score was an astonishing 7-5 to Manchester United. You will have won £95. So your prediction of it being a high scoring game is worth more the more correct you were about that statement.

So as you can see from the previous example the more correct your feelings about a particular game turn out to be the more money goes into your profit. Now that is all well and good but how can you use this to make a killing from spread betting on football? The real key to achieving this is to realise the psychology of spread bettors.

The majority of spread bettors are thrill seekers; they love the feeling of a spread bet and like to play it out to the end. This is good we can use this. Now because most spread bettors are like this they are more likely to buy a spread than sell it. Why? Because what is more entertaining/exciting? Wanting a goal to go in or not wanting a goal to go in? Exactly.

So because of the psychology of the thrill seeking gambler we can deduce that most spread bettors will prefer to buy. Now how is this helpful? Well if more people are buying the spread than selling it what would you do as a spread betting company? You would raise the spread wouldn’t you! Now what we are seeing is an artificially raised spread because of thrill seeking gamblers, not high spreads because of real sporting circumstances.

And it is through these artificially raised spreads that you can make a killing from spread betting. If you want to learn more about Spread Betting and profiting from spread betting I recommend you read the Spread Professional. It really helped me a lot when I was getting to grips with all the jargon associated with this form of betting and it will really help you to.