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Why Betting Systems Are 50% The System and 50% You!

Posted In General Betting Tips/Guides, By Mike

So I had an idea for a new betting strategy the other day that I was trying to turn into a system when I thought, what is the point in setting things in stone by assigning the tag ‘system’ to it.

As soon as you call something a system there is no wiggle room. There is no ‘well this still looks like a good bet’ or ‘there’s no chance that horse is going to win it has one leg!’. If the horse/team/whatever fits the rules you are obliged to bet on it otherwise you are not giving the system a chance.

A system that I myself advised that is running pretty hot at the moment advised a massive bet which I consider to be an anomaly because the two teams involved are too evenly matched for the predicted result to be considered a ‘value bet’. You might think this is just my system showing its flaws but you will find these anamolous results in a number of systems in all sports. Just think of the last time you seen a selection come up in a system that you knew wasnt going to win, but it fit the rules for the system and the system had been running pretty good until this point.

This is why I say that a system should never be 100% followed, there should be flexibility in the system. For example imagine you bought a system that predicted draws in football matches. The next game that the system throws up is Liverpool vs Newcastle. All well and good this might be a draw, but then you learn from Sky Sports News that several of the Newcastle players are out with food poisoning. Should you still make the bet?

My point is this; a system has no way of knowing everything, a system cannot predict how a horse will fare in the weather conditions, it has no way of knowing what injuries have occurred making the result questionable.

Systems are facts and figures and that is it. It relies on how past events have unfolded to predict what will happen in the future, it has no way of keeping up with other events like the weather and injuries. This is where you come in; you add the human factor to betting systems and the better you are at refining and adjusting betting systems the better punter you will be.

So next time you buy a system do not blindly follow the selections it provides. Use the system as a general guide instead of a rigid rulebook. If a selection seems to be wrong because of X or Y then don’t back it, if a selection that you feel is a great value bet is not within the parameters of the system then adjust it slightly (as long as you have good reason for your bet!)

Also remember that systems don’t last forever, if a system is good and really does find inflated odds to secure profit sooner or later this gap is going to get closed out and your profit will shrink and disappear, it is at this point that your system depends on you instead of the other way around. When this happens it is up to you to adapt or die. This is a system that has been working for you, now you need to refine it so it works for you again.

So basically what I am saying here is that your knowledge is just as important as the profitability of a system. You should treat a system as an adviser, they are there to give you their opinion. You should use their selections, your own knowledge, recent news and any other piece of relevant information at your disposal to decide what to bet on.

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Betting On The Under/Over 2.5 Goals Market in Football

Posted In General Betting Tips/Guides, By Mike

In recent years the evolution of gambling has been such that people have started to move away from traditional betting of Win, Loss and Draw and into other different markets. This was first realised by the popularity of the First Goalscorer market, but people soon realised that this market was too much of a lottery in order to profit.

Now the bet is the 2.5 goals market. It’s popularity is because of the high strike rates that can be attained if you know what you are doing.

2.5 goals can be confusing to those of you who are knew to football betting because we all know that there is no such thing as 0.5 of a goal. This figure is just there to split the difference between 2 goals and 3 goals ie. if you backed over you have effectively backed that there will be 3 or more goals, if backed under you have effectively backed  that there will be 2 or less goals.

This market is not quite as easy as people starting out think it is however. People just starting out will just look for two teams playing against each other who have scored a huge amount of goals in their past couple of games.

There are so many more variables at play than that, firstly is the defence of the two particular teams. The two teams may have both scored lots of goals in their last few games but it could also be that they have not conceded any goals either in their last few games meaning that their defence is solid as a rock at the time.

Just remember to think about more than just how many goals have been scored, think more of how many goals can be scored in the next match instead! Also don’t forget to check out the all new Goals Market Professional, it is an in-depth training course for Goals Market Betting!

Click here for more information about the Goals Market Professional

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Betting on the 2.5 Goals Market

Posted In Approved Systems, Football (soccer) Betting Guides, General Betting Tips/Guides, By Mike

As you may know we have just released our long anticipated 2.5 Goal Betting System, and the feedback we have been getting already has been great. The reason we decided to publish this system is that on our free tips service we often make predictions on Over or Under 2.5 Goals and they are that successful that we received countless emails from people asking us what system we were following.

The truth was we only kind of follow a system. We follow a very basic system but the majority of our bets come from our research and a series of weighted variables based on a number of things. That is why when we made our system we included Advanced Training so that our customers were not just blindly following a system, they were researching and learning how to shape their skills to predict the goals market better.

The reason we bet on the goals market is simple, goals are a constant factor in games. Everything else has a tendancy to be inconsistent at the best of times, but you can always rely on the goals to keep coming or not coming if that is what you are betting on.

The 2.5 Goals market is not the only goal market you can bet on, but it is the ideal one. The 3.5 goal market does not have high enough odds to justify the  lower strike rate and the 1.5 and 0.5 goals markets have too low odds even though there is a much higher strike rate, as Goldilocks would say the 2.5 goal market is just right.

In play trading is always good in the 2.5 goals market. A common, and still profitable, technique is to back the Under 2.5 Goals on Betfair and then lay it off for a profit after 20-30 minutes. This bet is profitable because it is often easy to identify teams who have sluggish starts to a game and therefore unlikely to score in the first half. Even if there is a goal in the first 20-30 minutes it doesn’t mean all is lost as there still needs to be another 2 goals for your bet to fall apart, if you’re reasoning behind picking that particular game is strong you should win in the long run.

Anyway if you are interested in Goal Market Betting, and more specifically the 2.5 Goals Market I recommend you taking a look at our new guide Goals Market Professional, get involved and you’ll thank me later!

Click here for more information about the Goals Market Professional

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Laying Horses For Profit

Posted In General Betting Tips/Guides, By Mike

If you are a regular visitor of this site you will probably know I lay horses all the time. In fact it is probably my most profitable betting venture for the past few years now. And I will admit this to you right now, I don’t like horse racing that much! I only bet on it because at the moment it is one of the easiest ways to make money for me.

Make sure you read that ‘for me’ I included at the end of that last sentence. Just because I am doing well laying horses does not guarantee you will succeed as well, it could just be I have a ‘gift’ at finding horses that just plain wont win. The way I do it and this is no big secret is I look for reasons a certain horse wont win the race, note this down and then look for other horses that can win in its place.

No big secret there; just find reasons the horse will not win and then find another horse that can win in it’s place. Then I lay off the horse that I dont think will win and take my profit! (For a more in depth look at how I determine what horses wont win check out the Losing Qualities guide.)

So that’s my big betting strategy! Sounds easy doesn’t it? Well before you go running off to betfair laying off horses left, right and center there are a few things you should keep in mind.

Don’t lay off huge priced horses – This is the fastest way to huge losses. Long priced horses do win and they will cripple you when they do. Especially because on betting exchanges long priced horses odds are even higher than they should be because of the inflated odds exchanges have.

Keep it short – Price and Field I mean. Under 4.5 odds is what I usually go for and is where I usually get the most profit.

Keep an eye on competitors – Remember you need a horses that can beat your lay as well. So it is no use if you lay off a 3/1 shot when the next horse is 12/1 to win. Check the size of the field and the odds of nearest competitors and keep this in mind.

So this post was only supposed to give you the basic idea of why I lay horses and to answer some of the questions I’ve received on the topic, I’ll leave it to you to do the proper research on your own, just remember with every type of betting the more you put in the more you get out. So do the work put in the effort and you will see the returns.

Also I cannot take all of the credit for laying horses being my biggest earner at the moment. Laying Horses Tipsters are probably my biggest monthly expense at the moment, an expense I consider to be totally worth it. The most profitable tipster I use is Martin’s Better Betting, which in the past 3 years has only had 3 losing months and is easily the cheapest of them all.

 

Spread Betting – Buying Or Selling, Which Is Best?

Posted In General Betting Tips/Guides, Updates, By Mike

Spread Betting as preceded by its reputation is one of the biggest thrills available for a sports bettor. However those of us who take our gambling seriously and are not looking for thrills but instead we are looking for long term consistent profits often look at Spread Betting through weary eyes due to the implied risks that comes with it.

We would be wrong to completely overlook the value that can be found from spread betting on sports though as spread companies are just as fallable as standard bookmakers if not more so. When spread companies set their spreads they are not accurately reflecting what the actual spread is instead they make them in order to split the public down the middle thereby guaranteeing a profit for themselves.

Explanation: Say the spread for Total Points for England in a 20/20 match is 150-155. The betting company has made the spread at this level so that half of the money bet on this market is on the BUY and half of it is on the SELL. This means that the spread company will make a guaranteed profit considering they have successfully split the public.

Still not convinced? Well say to continue the example that the total wagered on this market was £1000 per point (that’s how spread betting works on a point basis) that means that £500 would have been bought at 155 and £500 would have been sold at 150. Now regardless of the actual result the spread company will win 5pts profit or £2500:

England Score 140 – SELLERS will make a combined profit of £5000 (150-140x£500). BUYERS will have made a combined loss of £7500 (155-140x£500) – Spread Company Profit = £2500

England Score 160 – BUYERS will make a combined profit of £2500 (160-155x£500). SELLERS will have made a combined loss of £5000 (160-150x£500) – Spread Company Profit = £2500

England Score 152- BUYERS will make a combined loss of £1500 (155-152x£500). SELLERS will have made a combined loss of £1000 (152-150x£500) – Spread Company Profit = £2500

Now given this knowledge on splitting the public the Professionals in the field, like my friend Tony Jenkins, will tell you that you should be SELLING more than BUYING because the psychology of the average man is to BUY the spread because of the ‘infinite’ profits available driving the spread higher as a result (If more people are BUYING than SELLING the spread will be higher so it splits the public).

I also agree with this thinking but I also notice that on some markets the spread is lower than expected, meaning a large number of people are selling and it is these opportunities I like to exploit. Either way you do it you should always look for inconsistencies between what the spread should be and what the spread is and then use this to make your profit.

For those of you who are reading this thinking “What the hell are you talking about, what in god’s name is Spread Betting?” then you should check out the guide written by my pal Tony Jenkins called Spread Professional. It’s only a fiver and is designed to give the basics plus some good tips to profitting in the world of spread betting.

 
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