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As you may know we have just released our long anticipated 2.5 Goal Betting System, and the feedback we have been getting already has been great. The reason we decided to publish this system is that on our free tips service we often make predictions on Over or Under 2.5 Goals and they are that successful that we received countless emails from people asking us what system we were following.

The truth was we only kind of follow a system. We follow a very basic system but the majority of our bets come from our research and a series of weighted variables based on a number of things. That is why when we made our system we included Advanced Training so that our customers were not just blindly following a system, they were researching and learning how to shape their skills to predict the goals market better.

The reason we bet on the goals market is simple, goals are a constant factor in games. Everything else has a tendancy to be inconsistent at the best of times, but you can always rely on the goals to keep coming or not coming if that is what you are betting on.

The 2.5 Goals market is not the only goal market you can bet on, but it is the ideal one. The 3.5 goal market does not have high enough odds to justify the  lower strike rate and the 1.5 and 0.5 goals markets have too low odds even though there is a much higher strike rate, as Goldilocks would say the 2.5 goal market is just right.

In play trading is always good in the 2.5 goals market. A common, and still profitable, technique is to back the Under 2.5 Goals on Betfair and then lay it off for a profit after 20-30 minutes. This bet is profitable because it is often easy to identify teams who have sluggish starts to a game and therefore unlikely to score in the first half. Even if there is a goal in the first 20-30 minutes it doesn’t mean all is lost as there still needs to be another 2 goals for your bet to fall apart, if you’re reasoning behind picking that particular game is strong you should win in the long run.

Anyway if you are interested in Goal Market Betting, and more specifically the 2.5 Goals Market I recommend you taking a look at our new guide Goals Market Professional, get involved and you’ll thank me later!

Click here for more information about the Goals Market Professional

So, as you may know, here at TopBettingGuides we strive to help part time punters such as yourselves finally break free from unprofitable bets and start making serious money from betting. (more…)

In this post I am going to be going through some of the better markets to make profits from when talking about betting on football. Then I am going to highlight some markets that you should avoid if you are looking to make consistent returns from your betting; these markets are perfect for a cheeky bet at the weekend but should be avoided when making serious bets.

Best Football Bets

First I am going to go through some of the bets that our best for professional gamblers to make consistent profits with. These are the markets that I most often make bets on and are therefore the bets that my subscribers receive as part of our free tips service. If you are interested in getting free tips sent to you before matches then pop your email in the box below:Otherwise let’s begin:

Match Odds

Quite an obvious one this. This is simply the Win/Loss/Draw market where you back a particular team to win the match, or back the draw if you are inclined. When you know a lot about the teams that are involved in a match you can really get high % strike rates. A lot of people negate the Draw part of this bet by using Betfair to lay a particular team so that they still win in the case of a draw; the odds are worse but the higher strike rate should offset this.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

This is one of my personal favourites. The beauty of this bet is that it does not require you to be cheering for a particular team. I prefer to go Over but I suspect that a lot of people have this preference so the odds are unnaturally shifted as a result. To win in this market you need to know both how effective the Strikeforce and Defence of each team is but also how past form can dictate total goals.

For example if Arsenal have just smashed through a relegation zone team 5-0 and their next game is against another relegation zone team does the fact they scored 5 in the last game make them more or less likely to do the same? Some teams can regularly hit 4+ goals a game while other teams will see a goal drought after a huge victory. The same for losing sides; just because a team has been on the end of a hammering recently does not mean their next game will be the same, chances are they will tighten up and the next game will be low scoring. Food for thought.

Team -1.5 Goals

Not one of my personal favourites but a bet I do from time to time. The basic premise of this bet is that you are betting that a team will beat another team by a margin of 2 goals or more. The reason this bet is popular for professional gamblers is that a lot of the time the odds difference between a team winning a game and a team winning with a -1.5 handicap do not reflect reality, meaning the odds are higher than what they should be considering what the odds of them just winning the match are.

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Worst Football Bets

So now I am going to go through a couple of the worst bets you can make on football. I consider these the worst as they are the hardest ways to consistently make money, this is not to say that you cannot make money on these niches it is just to say that they are pretty difficult in terms of long term money making.

First/Last Goalscorer

This is one of the most popular market for recreational punters ie. people who just have a fun bet at the weekend on their favourite teams. The major problem with this market is the huge luck factor that is involved with selecting the first goalscorer. With good knowledge of the teams and the players you can easily choose who is the most likely to score in any given game but then there is a big roulette spin about whether or not he will be the first (or last) goalscorer in the game, could easily be one of his team mates or an opposing player! The best bet to do when you are sure a player will score is to do his anytime odds and make sure that the odds reflect what you believe the odds to be.

Correct Score

Similar to the above the correct score market is simply too much of a lucky bet to be worth much if you are looking to consistently profit. Granted the odds you receive on bets like these are pretty good but you really need to be hitting a decent strike rate in order to profit. The reason it is hard to predict the correct score is quite obvious, as I said before it’s quite easy to get a nice return when betting on match odds and the over/under 2.5 market but when you try to combine these markets and make them even more specific by saying the exact number of goals for each time it becomes more a game of luck than anything else.

Conclusion

So to conclude good markets that you should be looking out for are things you can keep track of yourself and where the outcome is majority based on past statistics and form rather than luck.

So the latest ‘must have’ system being released is Betting Underground. There is a huge amount of hype surrounding this system and it’s launch so I’m definitely interested in taking a look at what it offers. The owner’s of the guide themselves proclaim:

Betting Underground is a complete step-by-step betting guide that starts from square one and includes strategies and systems not only for horse racing, but also virtually for all other sports – Baseball, Basketball, US/UK Soccer, US Football, Tennis, Cricket, etc.. Betting Underground is suitable for anyone who wants to make quick money on Betfair or on other bookies whether they are novice or seasoned punters.

I have just bought the system in question myself this morning and here are my thoughts on it:

For starters the number of exit pop-ups on that site was totally annoying and gave me the initial impressions of stay away scam, but I realise this is a viable marketing technique and I am here to do a review so I am continued on and bought anyway.

When I got to the thank you page I was pretty impressed to find that I had not only the main guide but then individual guides for each sport and 4 bonus guides to choose from. However what I later learned was that all of the individual sports guide were take directly from the main guide and only made into a seperate guide for ease of access I would expect.

The systems themselves are extremely basic and a lot of the time just well known and proven to not work systems (Martingale anyone?). I think the line that summed up why I will not be recommending this system to anyone is this:

Thus you bet the winnings from the previous game on the next game as well as in the Let it ride strategy.
If you are going to be successful 15 times in a row, you have the winnings paid out and start over.

Ah yes the let it ride strategy, a well known and profitable strategy indeed (sarcasm). Seriously though I can never recommend a guide that recommends the use of the ‘let it ride’ strategy, more over for 15 times before taking the winnings.

The system that I have hinted at above is basically a complex way of laying off 0-1 in football (UK) matches. Which is quite funny as the system makes you place three bets on three different outcomes with the only outcome missing being the 0-1 away win. The example they have given results in a $9 win from $100 if it is not 0-1, where they then tell you to let the winnings ride for 15 wins.

I would like to say that foolish systems like this were uncommon in this series of systems guide but I cannot there is a system that says if the away team have a player sent off by the 75 minute mark back that there will be another goal. Where are the past results to show that this isn’t anything more than a guess? Surely the odds will change after a red card to reflect that there might be another goal so we will not be able to get value in the long run.

Let’s move on from football, let’s check out what it says about baseball. According to this guide there are only two ways of betting on baseball, The Money Line and the Over/Under. This is news to me, all of these years I have been betting on the Run Line (+/- 1.5 runs remember that one?)

Again with the baseball system the rules are merely guesses that probably influence a game and I can guarantee are already reflected in the odds. Take for example this gem:

If you hit upon powerful offences that have been scoring consistently against a strong ERA pitcher, it is best to bet on the offences team. Betting on the team totals is advisable as the offences will score high runs for their team.

So if a team has been scoring lots of runs we should bet on them to score lots of runs? What a ridiculous statement, this statement would be the greatest betting strategy ever if we assume bookies are idiots and do not take past form into account when setting their lines and making their odds. Obviously a team that has been hitting good pitchers for multiple runs are going to have shorter odds on any overs bet than a normal side. Thus negating any gap in the market and resulting in losses in the long run. Also I have still failed to see any proof that any of these systems work.

Right well I think I may have made my point about this system but as I don’t get to do this an awful lot let’s take a look at the cricket system. To be honest I was quite impressed that there was a cricket system as it is not the most popular sport going but people still do like to bet on it.

Ah that is unlucky, the two pages that they have on cricket are not infact systems they just tell you what the different types of bets are.

So I think you know where I am going with this but I am going to have to put this in my failed category. This system in its entirety does not expose any gaps in the market to make long run profits which is what a system is supposed to do. Instead it goes into great detail on the  types of bets you can make and then proposes a system citing the only proof as one example, if that, where it was profitable for them.

I would possibly have said it was a good read for the professional gambler as they could get a few decent ideas from reading over these people’s theories but I can’t possibly endorse paying £27 for a system that is going to tell you to let it ride.

Also a small thing that annoyed me, the entire site is advertised in £’s leading you to believe that this guide is aimed at UK persons but then all through the book it uses American betting terms (parlays, soccer etc.). As a dual citizen of both countries I had no problem understanding but a normal UK person would have some troubles trying to decipher what all of these terms meant when for all intents and purposes it looks targetted to him.

Click here to go to the Betting Underground Site

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The review today is coming from the Lay The Best system. The current trend in betting systems seems to be laying tips and this service fits squarely into that bill. However unlike the other systems that I have reviewed already this system does lots of sports not just racing, making it the perfect service for the all-round sports bettor.

lay the best system review

Sports that you will be laying off on include Football, Tennis and Horse Racing to name the main ones. Also every now and again you will be getting lays for American Sports like the NFL, NHL, NBA and MLB.

Lay the Best sends out two emails per day outlining the tips for the day, these tips are normally sent at midday and 7pm but may be sent out earlier if there are earlier events. In the time I have been with them I have not known them to send out emails past this time.

Now for the clincher, the results of my test of this system:

Number of Lays: 156
Number of Successful Lays: 106
Successful lay %: ~68%
Profit: £3276.43

That’s through the last 2 and a half months laying to make £100 profit every success. The results of my system are slightly different to their official results but not so much that should cause any problem, I put it all down to the odds changing as the event draws nearer

So as you can probably tell this system is going right into my approved section.

horse racing lay selection picking service